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Meet the Researchers

Photo of John R. Krainer

John R. Krainer

Manager Stress Testing Section Supervision and Regulation
[email protected]

Education

  • Ph.D., Finance, University of Minnesota, 1999
Current Research Topics
  • Asset securitization
  • Bank credit supply
  • Principal Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2018 - present
  • Adjunct Professor

    Haas School of Business, University of California-Berkeley

    2017 - present
  • Research Officer

    Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

    1999 - 2018
  • Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market
    David Glancy, John R. Krainer, Robert J. Kurtzman, and Joseph B. Nichols
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2022)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12889
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2019)
  • The Credit Line Channel
    Daniel L. Greenwald, John Krainer, and Pascal Paul
    FRBSF Working Paper (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2020-26
  • De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss
    Rhys M. Bidder, John R. Krainer, and Adam Hale Shapiro
    Review of Economic Dynamics (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.06.014
  • Safe Collateral, Arm's-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market
    Lamont K. Black, John R. Krainer, and Joseph B. Nichols
    Review of Financial Studies (2020)
    https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa031
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2017)
  • Aggregation Level in Stress-Testing Models
    Galina Hale, John Krainer, and Erin McCarthy
    International Journal of Central Banking (2020)
  • Deleveraging and Consumer Credit Supply in the Wake of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis
    Reint Gropp, John Krainer, and Elizabeth Laderman
    International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
  • How Do Banks Cope with Loss?
    Rhys Bidder, John Krainer, and Adam Shapiro
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2018)
  • Safe Collateral, Arm's-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Mortgage Market
    Lamont Black, John Krainer, and Joseph Nichols
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2017)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.056
  • De-Leveraging or De-Risking? How Banks Cope with Loss
    Rhys M. Bidder, John R. Krainer, and Adam Hale Shapiro
    FRBSF Working Paper (2017)
    https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2017-03
  • From Origination to Renegotiation: A Comparison of Portfolio and Securitized Commercial Real Estate Loans
    Lamont Black, John Krainer, and Joseph Nichols
    Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (2017)
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-016-9548-1
  • Aggregation in Bank Stress Tests
    Galina Hale and John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2016)
  • Aggregation Level in Stress Testing Models
    Galina Hale, John Krainer, and Erin McCarthy
    FRBSF Working Paper (2015)
    https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2015-14
  • The Slowdown in Existing Home Sales
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2014)
  • Housing Market Headwinds
    John Krainer and Erin McCarthy
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2014)
  • Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand versus Supply in the Wake of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis
    Reint Gropp, John Krainer, and Elizabeth Laderman
    FRBSF Working Paper (2014)
    https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2014-08
  • Mortgage Loan Securitization and Relative Loan Performance
    John Krainer and Elizabeth Laderman
    Journal of Financial Services Research (2014)
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-013-0161-7
  • Evidence and Implications of Regime Shifts: Time-Varying Effects of the United States and Japanese Economies on House Prices in Hawaii
    John Krainer and James A. Wilcox
    Real Estate Economics (2013)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/reec.12009
  • Why Are Housing Inventories Low?
    William Hedberg and John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)
  • Commercial Real Estate and Low Interest Rates
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)
  • Consumer Debt and the Economic Recovery
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)
  • Credit Access Following a Mortgage Default
    William Hedberg and John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)
  • Housing Supply and Foreclosures
    William Hedberg and John Krainer
    FRBSF Working Paper (2012)
  • Cap Rates and Commercial Property Prices
    Bart Hobijn, John Krainer, and David Lang
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
  • Entry and Pricing in a Differentiated Products Industry: Evidence from the ATM Market
    Gautam Gowrisankaran and John Krainer
    RAND Journal of Economics (2011)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1756-2171.2010.00123.x
  • Fluctuating Fortunes and Hawaiian House Prices
    John Krainer and James A. Wilcox
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
  • When Will Residential Construction Rebound?
    William Hedberg and John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
  • Prepayment and Delinquency in the Mortgage Crisis Period
    John Krainer and Elizabeth Laderman
    FRBSF Working Paper (2011)
  • Mortgage Choice and the Pricing of Fixed-Rate and Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2010)
  • Mortgage Prepayments and Changing Underwriting Standards
    William Hedberg and John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2010)
  • Risky Mortgages and Mortgage Default Premiums
    John Krainer and Stephen LeRoy
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2010)
  • Underwater Mortgages
    John Krainer and Stephen LeRoy
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2010)
  • Asset Price Persistence and Real Estate Market Illiquidity: Evidence from Japanese Land Values
    John Krainer, Mark M. Spiegel, and Nobuyoshi Yamori
    Real Estate Economics (2010)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00264.x
  • Estimating Static Models of Strategic Interactions
    Patrick Bajari, Han Hong, John Krainer, and Denis Nekipelov
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2010)
    https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2009.07264
  • House Prices and Bank Loan Performance
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2009)
  • Recent Developments in Mortgage Finance
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2009)
  • Mortgage Default and Mortgage Valuation
    John Krainer, Stephen F. LeRoy, and Munpyung O
    FRBSF Working Paper (2009)
  • Do Supervisory Rating Standards Change Over Time?
    John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez
    FRBSF Economic Review (2009)
  • Falling House Prices and Rising Time on the Market
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2008)
  • The Subprime Mortgage Market: National and Twelfth District Developments
    Frederick Thomas Furlong, Yelena Takhtamanova, Elizabeth Laderman, and John Krainer
    Annual Report (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) (2008)
  • Regional Economic Conditions and Aggregate Bank Performance
    Mary Daly, John Krainer, and Jose A. Lopez
    Research in Finance, Volume 24 (2008)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/S0196-3821(07)00205-5
  • Using Securities Market Information for Bank Supervisory Monitoring
    John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez
    International Journal of Central Banking (2008)
  • House Prices and Subprime Mortgage Delinquencies
    Mark Doms, Frederick Furlong, and John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2007)
  • Regional Economic Conditions and Community Bank Performance
    Fred Furlong and John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2007)
  • Regional Economic Conditions and the Variability of Rates of Return in Commercial Banking
    Frederick T. Furlong and John Krainer
    FRBSF Working Paper (2007)
  • Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Rates
    Mark Doms, Frederick T. Furlong, and John Krainer
    FRBSF Working Paper (2007)
  • Innovations in Mortgage Markets and Increased Spending on Housing
    Mark Doms and John Krainer
    FRBSF Working Paper (2007)
  • Economics, Real Estate, and the Supply of Land
    John Krainer
    Journal of Regional Science (2006)
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2006.00478_5.x
  • Mortgage Innovation and Consumer Choice
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2006)
  • Residential Investment over the Real Estate Cycle
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2006)
  • The Welfare Consequences of ATM Surcharges: Evidence from a Structural Entry Model
    Gautam Gowrisankaran and John Krainer
    NBER Working Paper Series (2006)
    https://doi.org/10.3386/w12443
  • House Prices and Consumer Welfare
    Patrick Bajari, C. Lanier Benkard, and John Krainer
    Journal of Urban Economics (2005)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2005.08.008
  • Housing Markets and Demographics
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2005)
  • Bank ATMs and ATM Surcharges
    Gautam Gowrisankaran and John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2005)
  • Asset Price Declines and Real Estate Market Illiquidity: Evidence from Japanese Land Values
    John Krainer, Mark M. Spiegel, and Nobuyoshi Yamori
    FRBSF Working Paper (2005)
  • House Prices and Fundamental Value
    John Krainer and Chishen Wei
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2004)
  • What Determines the Credit Spread?
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2004)
  • Does Regional Economic Performance Affect Bank Conditions? New Analysis of an Old Question
    Mary C. Daly, John Krainer, and Jose A. Lopez
    FRBSF Working Paper (2004)
  • An Empirical Model of Stock Analysts' Recommendations: Market Fundamentals, Conflicts of Interest, and Peer Effects
    Patrick Bajari and John Krainer
    NBER Working Paper Series (2004)
    https://doi.org/10.3386/w10665
  • Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models
    John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2004)
  • Monitoring Debt Market Information for Bank Supervisory Purposes
    John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2003)
  • Using Equity Market Information to Monitor Banking Institutions
    John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2003)
  • Mortgage Refinancing
    John Krainer and Milton Marquis
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2003)
  • The Current Strength of the U.S. Banking Sector
    John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2003)
  • House Price Bubbles
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2003)
  • Mortgages as Recursive Contracts
    John Krainer and Milton H. Marquis
    FRBSF Working Paper (2003)
  • How Might Financial Market Information Be Used for Supervisory Purposes?
    John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez
    FRBSF Economic Review (2003)
  • Off-Site Monitoring of Bank Holding Companies
    John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2002)
  • Stock Market Volatility
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2002)
  • House Price Dynamics and the Business Cycle
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2002)
  • Equilibrium Valuation of Illiquid Assets
    John Krainer and Stephen F. LeRoy
    Economic Theory (2002)
    https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00004214
  • Banking and the Business Cycle
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2001)
  • Natural Vacancy Rates in Commercial Real Estate Markets
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2001)
  • Retail Sweeps and Reserves
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2001)
  • A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets
    John Krainer
    Journal of Urban Economics (2001)
    https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.2000.2180
  • Tech Stocks and House Prices in California
    John Krainer and Fred Furlong
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2000)
  • REITs and the Integration between Capital Markets and Real Estate Markets
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Letter (2000)
  • The Separation of Banking and Commerce
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Review (2000)
  • Real Estate Liquidity
    John Krainer
    FRBSF Economic Review (1999)
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Last Update: December 1, 2023