A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation, Accessible Data

Figure 1. CWI and AHE (production and nonsupervisory workers) growth rates

(1990:Q2-2019:Q4, annualized three-month percent changes)
Percent

  Common wage inflation AHE of production and nonsupervisory workers
30-Jun-90 3.44 3.55
30-Sep-90 3.23 3.13
31-Dec-90 3.05 2.33
31-Mar-91 3.13 2.70
30-Jun-91 3.28 3.82
30-Sep-91 2.75 2.66
31-Dec-91 2.95 2.26
31-Mar-92 2.70 1.88
30-Jun-92 2.71 2.98
30-Sep-92 2.81 2.22
31-Dec-92 2.59 2.21
31-Mar-93 2.73 3.66
30-Jun-93 2.60 1.45
30-Sep-93 2.65 2.53
31-Dec-93 2.63 2.87
31-Mar-94 2.72 2.50
30-Jun-94 2.74 2.13
30-Sep-94 2.78 2.82
31-Dec-94 2.80 3.15
31-Mar-95 2.80 2.43
30-Jun-95 2.80 2.76
30-Sep-95 3.00 3.42
31-Dec-95 2.85 2.72
31-Mar-96 3.00 2.70
30-Jun-96 3.31 4.68
30-Sep-96 3.23 3.31
31-Dec-96 3.57 3.61
31-Mar-97 3.49 3.90
30-Jun-97 3.26 3.22
30-Sep-97 3.68 4.47
31-Dec-97 3.73 4.73
31-Mar-98 3.67 3.75
30-Jun-98 3.74 3.71
30-Sep-98 3.80 3.68
31-Dec-98 3.36 3.34
31-Mar-99 3.70 3.31
30-Jun-99 3.89 4.18
30-Sep-99 3.63 4.14
31-Dec-99 3.89 2.64
31-Mar-00 3.72 4.36
30-Jun-00 3.67 4.02
30-Sep-00 3.78 3.70
31-Dec-00 3.59 4.79
31-Mar-01 3.46 3.90
30-Jun-01 3.37 3.31
30-Sep-01 3.22 2.19
31-Dec-01 3.01 3.27
31-Mar-02 3.03 2.16
30-Jun-02 2.97 2.96
30-Sep-02 2.61 3.20
31-Dec-02 3.11 3.70
31-Mar-03 2.50 2.10
30-Jun-03 2.42 2.09
30-Sep-03 2.19 1.56
31-Dec-03 2.04 1.29
31-Mar-04 2.12 2.32
30-Jun-04 2.19 2.82
30-Sep-04 2.61 2.80
31-Dec-04 2.14 2.02
31-Mar-05 2.58 2.76
30-Jun-05 2.42 2.75
30-Sep-05 2.67 2.73
31-Dec-05 3.07 4.18
31-Mar-06 3.09 4.38
30-Jun-06 3.60 4.33
30-Sep-06 3.40 3.57
31-Dec-06 3.73 4.01
31-Mar-07 3.46 4.20
30-Jun-07 3.68 4.62
30-Sep-07 3.61 3.20
31-Dec-07 3.47 2.95
31-Mar-08 3.97 4.27
30-Jun-08 3.36 3.56
30-Sep-08 3.45 3.53
31-Dec-08 3.05 3.94
31-Mar-09 3.17 2.60
30-Jun-09 2.47 1.30
30-Sep-09 2.96 3.01
31-Dec-09 2.50 2.98
31-Mar-10 1.84 1.69
30-Jun-10 2.06 2.32
30-Sep-10 1.48 1.68
31-Dec-10 1.56 2.30
31-Mar-11 1.34 1.87
30-Jun-11 1.42 2.27
30-Sep-11 1.36 1.44
31-Dec-11 1.33 1.43
31-Mar-12 1.70 1.84
30-Jun-12 1.72 1.42
30-Sep-12 1.68 1.42
31-Dec-12 1.97 2.02
31-Mar-13 1.76 2.61
30-Jun-13 2.04 1.99
30-Sep-13 2.12 2.18
31-Dec-13 2.46 1.97
31-Mar-14 2.46 2.94
30-Jun-14 2.32 1.75
30-Sep-14 2.44 2.13
31-Dec-14 1.98 0.77
31-Mar-15 2.52 3.08
30-Jun-15 2.43 2.48
30-Sep-15 2.66 1.90
31-Dec-15 2.83 2.46
31-Mar-16 2.67 3.00
30-Jun-16 2.87 2.42
30-Sep-16 2.79 1.85
31-Dec-16 2.89 2.58
31-Mar-17 2.91 2.20
30-Jun-17 2.86 2.55
30-Sep-17 3.06 2.89
31-Dec-17 2.91 2.16
31-Mar-18 3.26 3.21
30-Jun-18 3.31 3.19
30-Sep-18 3.34 3.34
31-Dec-18 3.49 4.00
31-Mar-19 3.32 2.76
30-Jun-19 3.33 3.08
30-Sep-19 3.49 4.08
31-Dec-19 3.13 2.02

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, and December 2007–June 2009.

Source: AHE of production and nonsupervisory workers (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), Common wage inflation (authors' calculation)

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Figure 2. Wage inflation measures and the unemployment rate gap
  CWI AHE (production) AHE (all workers) ECI (private) ECI (wages and salaries) Unemployment rate gap (RHS)
2011:Q4 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00
2012:Q1 1.25 1.05 1.32 0.94 1.32 0.38
2012:Q2 1.26 0.81 0.96 0.94 1.10 0.71
2012:Q3 1.23 0.81 0.96 0.78 1.09 0.75
2012:Q4 1.44 1.15 1.30 0.62 0.87 0.84
2013:Q1 1.29 1.49 0.69 1.08 1.52 1.02
2013:Q2 1.50 1.14 1.37 0.92 1.29 0.94
2013:Q3 1.56 1.24 0.77 0.76 0.85 0.99
2013:Q4 1.80 1.12 0.93 0.91 1.50 1.18
2014:Q1 1.80 1.68 1.18 0.45 0.63 1.37
2014:Q2 1.70 1.00 1.09 1.52 1.70 1.52
2014:Q3 1.79 1.22 1.00 1.20 1.90 1.90
2014:Q4 1.45 0.44 0.75 1.04 1.46 1.96
2015:Q1 1.85 1.75 1.65 1.19 1.66 2.28
2015:Q2 1.78 1.42 1.15 0.00 0.41 2.41
2015:Q3 1.95 1.08 1.06 1.18 1.65 2.48
2015:Q4 2.08 1.40 1.14 0.88 1.43 2.79
2016:Q1 1.96 1.71 1.61 1.02 1.63 2.84
2016:Q2 2.11 1.38 1.44 1.16 1.82 2.92
2016:Q3 2.05 1.06 1.11 0.86 1.20 2.95
2016:Q4 2.12 1.47 1.19 1.00 1.40 2.94
2017:Q1 2.13 1.25 1.41 1.14 1.79 3.07
2017:Q2 2.10 1.45 1.33 1.13 1.58 3.27
2017:Q3 2.24 1.65 1.78 1.41 1.97 3.46
2017:Q4 2.14 1.23 1.00 0.98 1.55 3.52
2018:Q1 2.39 1.83 1.53 1.67 2.33 3.68
2018:Q2 2.43 1.82 1.59 1.10 1.54 3.75
2018:Q3 2.45 1.90 1.88 1.37 2.10 3.87
2018:Q4 2.56 2.28 1.71 1.22 1.89 4.04
2019:Q1 2.43 1.58 1.33 1.21 1.88 4.00
2019:Q2 2.45 1.76 1.47 0.93 1.49 3.93
2019:Q3 2.56 2.32 1.53 1.47 2.23 4.15
2019:Q4 2.30 1.15 1.45 1.19 1.84 4.15

Note: We normalize the wage inflation rates in 2011 to be 1 by dividing the rates by the average values of 2011. We use the average in 2011 for the normalization to smooth out the noise in the quarterly estimates or data. We plot the changes in the negative unemployment rate gap relative to its 2011:Q4 value.

Source: AHE of production and nonsupervisory workers and of all workers (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), ECI and ECI of wages and salaries (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), CPH (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), Unemployment rate (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).

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Figure 3. Aggregate factors extracted from the headline AHE

(Annualized 3-month percent changes, deviations from respective means)
Percent

  CWI Relative wage inflation Pure wage inflation
1-Apr-90 0.57 0.77 -0.20
1-Jul-90 0.37 0.26 0.10
1-Oct-90 0.19 0.20 -0.02
1-Jan-91 0.26 0.36 -0.10
1-Apr-91 0.42 0.18 0.24
1-Jul-91 -0.12 0.30 -0.42
1-Oct-91 0.09 -0.04 0.12
1-Jan-92 -0.17 0.26 -0.43
1-Apr-92 -0.16 0.04 -0.20
1-Jul-92 -0.05 0.21 -0.26
1-Oct-92 -0.27 0.18 -0.46
1-Jan-93 -0.14 -0.05 -0.09
1-Apr-93 -0.27 0.19 -0.46
1-Jul-93 -0.21 -0.07 -0.14
1-Oct-93 -0.23 0.03 -0.26
1-Jan-94 -0.15 0.12 -0.26
1-Apr-94 -0.13 -0.02 -0.11
1-Jul-94 -0.09 0.12 -0.21
1-Oct-94 -0.06 0.04 -0.10
1-Jan-95 -0.07 -0.06 -0.01
1-Apr-95 -0.07 0.05 -0.11
1-Jul-95 0.14 -0.10 0.24
1-Oct-95 -0.02 -0.07 0.05
1-Jan-96 0.13 -0.14 0.28
1-Apr-96 0.44 -0.07 0.51
1-Jul-96 0.36 -0.02 0.38
1-Oct-96 0.71 0.02 0.69
1-Jan-97 0.62 0.05 0.58
1-Apr-97 0.39 -0.25 0.64
1-Jul-97 0.81 0.08 0.73
1-Oct-97 0.87 0.19 0.68
1-Jan-98 0.80 0.13 0.67
1-Apr-98 0.87 0.38 0.50
1-Jul-98 0.94 0.37 0.57
1-Oct-98 0.50 0.21 0.29
1-Jan-99 0.83 0.29 0.54
1-Apr-99 1.02 0.62 0.40
1-Jul-99 0.77 0.28 0.49
1-Oct-99 1.03 0.46 0.57
1-Jan-00 0.86 0.36 0.50
1-Apr-00 0.81 0.18 0.63
1-Jul-00 0.91 0.34 0.58
1-Oct-00 0.72 0.26 0.47
1-Jan-01 0.60 -0.02 0.62
1-Apr-01 0.51 0.30 0.21
1-Jul-01 0.35 -0.20 0.55
1-Oct-01 0.15 -0.31 0.45
1-Jan-02 0.16 -0.34 0.50
1-Apr-02 0.10 -0.58 0.68
1-Jul-02 -0.26 -0.65 0.39
1-Oct-02 0.25 -0.38 0.63
1-Jan-03 -0.37 -0.51 0.14
1-Apr-03 -0.44 -0.68 0.24
1-Jul-03 -0.68 -0.68 0.01
1-Oct-03 -0.83 -0.78 -0.05
1-Jan-04 -0.74 -0.87 0.12
1-Apr-04 -0.67 -0.52 -0.15
1-Jul-04 -0.26 -0.54 0.28
1-Oct-04 -0.73 -0.57 -0.15
1-Jan-05 -0.29 -0.54 0.25
1-Apr-05 -0.44 -0.55 0.11
1-Jul-05 -0.19 -0.39 0.20
1-Oct-05 0.20 -0.31 0.51
1-Jan-06 0.22 -0.07 0.29
1-Apr-06 0.73 -0.04 0.77
1-Jul-06 0.54 0.01 0.53
1-Oct-06 0.86 0.09 0.77
1-Jan-07 0.59 -0.12 0.71
1-Apr-07 0.81 0.18 0.63
1-Jul-07 0.74 0.07 0.67
1-Oct-07 0.61 0.16 0.45
1-Jan-08 1.10 0.57 0.53
1-Apr-08 0.49 0.10 0.39
1-Jul-08 0.59 0.34 0.24
1-Oct-08 0.19 0.15 0.04
1-Jan-09 0.30 0.23 0.07
1-Apr-09 -0.40 0.04 -0.43
1-Jul-09 0.10 0.20 -0.10
1-Oct-09 -0.37 0.27 -0.64
1-Jan-10 -1.02 -0.46 -0.56
1-Apr-10 -0.81 -0.11 -0.70
1-Jul-10 -1.38 -0.41 -0.98
1-Oct-10 -1.30 -0.48 -0.82
1-Jan-11 -1.52 -0.32 -1.20
1-Apr-11 -1.45 -0.39 -1.06
1-Jul-11 -1.51 -0.31 -1.20
1-Oct-11 -1.53 -0.39 -1.14
1-Jan-12 -1.16 -0.05 -1.11
1-Apr-12 -1.14 -0.15 -1.00
1-Jul-12 -1.19 -0.18 -1.01
1-Oct-12 -0.90 -0.06 -0.84
1-Jan-13 -1.10 -0.30 -0.81
1-Apr-13 -0.82 -0.10 -0.72
1-Jul-13 -0.74 -0.10 -0.64
1-Oct-13 -0.41 0.18 -0.59
1-Jan-14 -0.41 0.11 -0.51
1-Apr-14 -0.54 -0.05 -0.50
1-Jul-14 -0.43 -0.01 -0.41
1-Oct-14 -0.88 -0.46 -0.43
1-Jan-15 -0.34 -0.04 -0.30
1-Apr-15 -0.44 -0.26 -0.18
1-Jul-15 -0.21 0.14 -0.35
1-Oct-15 -0.03 0.04 -0.07
1-Jan-16 -0.19 0.11 -0.30
1-Apr-16 0.01 0.22 -0.21
1-Jul-16 -0.08 0.22 -0.29
1-Oct-16 0.03 0.44 -0.41
1-Jan-17 0.04 0.23 -0.19
1-Apr-17 0.00 0.47 -0.47
1-Jul-17 0.19 0.32 -0.13
1-Oct-17 0.04 0.39 -0.35
1-Jan-18 0.40 0.55 -0.15
1-Apr-18 0.45 0.34 0.11
1-Jul-18 0.48 0.54 -0.06
1-Oct-18 0.63 0.27 0.36
1-Jan-19 0.45 0.25 0.20
1-Apr-19 0.47 0.22 0.25
1-Jul-19 0.62 0.03 0.60
1-Oct-19 0.27 0.18 0.09

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, and December 2007–June 2009.

Source: authors' calculation.

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Figure 4. Wage growth by cyclicality of industries
  Panel A. weak Panel B. medium Panel C. strong Panel D. Strong VS CWI
VS CWI
1-Apr-90 4.14 2.55 4.21 4.21 3.44
1-Jul-90 4.25 3.43 3.14 3.14 3.23
1-Oct-90 2.66 2.97 2.43 2.43 3.05
1-Jan-91 3.35 3.67 2.92 2.92 3.13
1-Apr-91 3.49 4.43 4.31 4.31 3.28
1-Jul-91 1.98 2.12 2.55 2.55 2.75
1-Oct-91 3.77 2.55 3.08 3.08 2.95
1-Jan-92 2.17 2.33 2.03 2.03 2.70
1-Apr-92 2.72 3.08 2.36 2.36 2.71
1-Jul-92 3.68 4.01 1.79 1.79 2.81
1-Oct-92 1.79 2.06 2.15 2.15 2.59
1-Jan-93 3.19 2.85 2.38 2.38 2.73
1-Apr-93 3.00 2.22 1.98 1.98 2.60
1-Jul-93 3.15 2.39 2.28 2.28 2.65
1-Oct-93 3.84 2.64 2.40 2.40 2.63
1-Jan-94 3.61 2.76 2.35 2.35 2.72
1-Apr-94 1.58 2.57 2.76 2.76 2.74
1-Jul-94 2.91 2.07 3.24 3.24 2.78
1-Oct-94 3.61 2.46 2.70 2.70 2.80
1-Jan-95 2.06 2.71 2.37 2.37 2.80
1-Apr-95 4.20 2.28 2.77 2.77 2.80
1-Jul-95 4.01 3.41 3.24 3.24 3.00
1-Oct-95 2.74 2.78 2.40 2.40 2.85
1-Jan-96 2.65 3.68 2.82 2.82 3.00
1-Apr-96 4.36 4.14 4.61 4.61 3.31
1-Jul-96 1.79 3.18 3.54 3.54 3.23
1-Oct-96 3.11 3.62 4.91 4.91 3.57
1-Jan-97 3.28 4.19 3.24 3.24 3.49
1-Apr-97 2.88 2.85 3.20 3.20 3.26
1-Jul-97 6.17 3.94 5.23 5.23 3.68
1-Oct-97 3.90 4.06 4.95 4.95 3.73
1-Jan-98 6.09 3.62 4.03 4.03 3.67
1-Apr-98 3.43 3.44 4.02 4.02 3.74
1-Jul-98 2.73 4.80 3.72 3.72 3.80
1-Oct-98 3.39 1.83 2.83 2.83 3.36
1-Jan-99 3.60 3.47 4.27 4.27 3.70
1-Apr-99 2.76 4.15 4.27 4.27 3.89
1-Jul-99 3.59 3.45 3.84 3.84 3.63
1-Oct-99 2.25 2.54 3.93 3.93 3.89
1-Jan-00 4.14 3.24 4.52 4.52 3.72
1-Apr-00 2.79 3.73 4.57 4.57 3.67
1-Jul-00 2.67 4.19 4.52 4.52 3.78
1-Oct-00 3.26 4.52 3.79 3.79 3.59
1-Jan-01 4.27 3.61 3.52 3.52 3.46
1-Apr-01 3.66 3.70 3.18 3.18 3.37
1-Jul-01 1.17 3.06 2.62 2.62 3.22
1-Oct-01 5.58 3.48 2.67 2.67 3.01
1-Jan-02 2.45 3.14 3.28 3.28 3.03
1-Apr-02 4.14 2.92 3.19 3.19 2.97
1-Jul-02 5.09 4.05 2.22 2.22 2.61
1-Oct-02 4.30 3.63 4.73 4.73 3.11
1-Jan-03 3.49 2.70 1.40 1.40 2.50
1-Apr-03 3.64 1.77 1.51 1.51 2.42
1-Jul-03 1.57 2.21 0.87 0.87 2.19
1-Oct-03 0.45 1.46 1.04 1.04 2.04
1-Jan-04 2.40 2.79 1.29 1.29 2.12
1-Apr-04 2.08 3.47 1.60 1.60 2.19
1-Jul-04 2.43 2.56 2.97 2.97 2.61
1-Oct-04 2.69 2.20 1.50 1.50 2.14
1-Jan-05 2.33 2.47 2.07 2.07 2.58
1-Apr-05 2.59 2.24 2.23 2.23 2.42
1-Jul-05 2.26 2.11 3.14 3.14 2.67
1-Oct-05 3.24 3.51 3.27 3.27 3.07
1-Jan-06 4.01 2.89 4.60 4.60 3.09
1-Apr-06 2.91 3.90 4.61 4.61 3.60
1-Jul-06 4.87 2.79 3.97 3.97 3.40
1-Oct-06 3.37 3.01 5.38 5.38 3.73
1-Jan-07 2.72 3.96 4.58 4.58 3.46
1-Apr-07 2.81 4.41 4.56 4.56 3.68
1-Jul-07 0.47 3.71 3.59 3.59 3.61
1-Oct-07 0.59 2.65 2.86 2.86 3.47
1-Jan-08 2.02 4.65 3.65 3.65 3.97
1-Apr-08 3.26 2.82 3.86 3.86 3.36
1-Jul-08 2.38 3.38 4.36 4.36 3.45
1-Oct-08 -0.36 1.70 4.69 4.69 3.05
1-Jan-09 1.37 2.59 3.27 3.27 3.17
1-Apr-09 2.88 1.83 1.31 1.31 2.47
1-Jul-09 2.03 4.09 3.95 3.95 2.96
1-Oct-09 4.20 2.28 1.51 1.51 2.50
1-Jan-10 2.99 1.54 2.07 2.07 1.84
1-Apr-10 1.03 2.55 2.46 2.46 2.06
1-Jul-10 3.10 2.52 0.96 0.96 1.48
1-Oct-10 2.42 2.41 0.93 0.93 1.56
1-Jan-11 3.37 0.93 1.60 1.60 1.34
1-Apr-11 1.62 1.22 2.49 2.49 1.42
1-Jul-11 3.96 1.79 0.06 0.06 1.36
1-Oct-11 5.68 1.92 0.35 0.35 1.33
1-Jan-12 1.88 1.71 1.23 1.23 1.70
1-Apr-12 2.23 2.00 0.85 0.85 1.72
1-Jul-12 2.58 0.01 1.30 1.30 1.68
1-Oct-12 4.99 0.86 2.10 2.10 1.97
1-Jan-13 2.45 2.49 1.13 1.13 1.76
1-Apr-13 3.81 2.18 0.99 0.99 2.04
1-Jul-13 1.87 2.17 2.05 2.05 2.12
1-Oct-13 1.64 2.47 2.09 2.09 2.46
1-Jan-14 4.27 1.83 2.50 2.50 2.46
1-Apr-14 1.84 1.98 2.07 2.07 2.32
1-Jul-14 1.53 3.24 2.03 2.03 2.44
1-Oct-14 2.55 -0.10 1.55 1.55 1.98
1-Jan-15 0.15 3.79 2.39 2.39 2.52
1-Apr-15 1.87 2.90 2.53 2.53 2.43
1-Jul-15 2.32 3.53 2.14 2.14 2.66
1-Oct-15 2.23 0.71 3.08 3.08 2.83
1-Jan-16 4.25 2.47 3.06 3.06 2.67
1-Apr-16 2.40 1.60 3.10 3.10 2.87
1-Jul-16 1.83 2.16 2.71 2.71 2.79
1-Oct-16 0.72 3.55 2.34 2.34 2.89
1-Jan-17 1.29 2.94 3.66 3.66 2.91
1-Apr-17 3.10 2.74 2.95 2.95 2.86
1-Jul-17 2.26 2.33 3.95 3.95 3.06
1-Oct-17 2.72 1.60 2.68 2.68 2.91
1-Jan-18 2.67 3.79 2.93 2.93 3.26
1-Apr-18 1.83 3.87 3.91 3.91 3.31
1-Jul-18 2.82 2.85 3.42 3.42 3.34
1-Oct-18 3.64 4.21 4.03 4.03 3.49
1-Jan-19 2.24 2.60 4.11 4.11 3.32
1-Apr-19 3.87 2.29 3.66 3.66 3.33
1-Jul-19 2.55 4.79 4.01 4.01 3.49
1-Oct-19 3.40 2.00 3.40 3.40 3.13

Source: authors' calculation.

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Last Update: July 08, 2020