Accessible Version

Global Real Economic Uncertainty and COVID-19, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Global REU and IP growth

Standard Deviations from Mean (Percent)

Date REU (Left Axis) IP growth (Right Axis)
12/1/2000 -0.353339062 0.478950848
1/1/2001 -0.020808566 0.391368918
2/1/2001 -0.047035097 0.389181746
3/1/2001 -0.042858129 0.198323216
4/1/2001 0.012436028 0.064646989
5/1/2001 -0.064092657 0.098409736
6/1/2001 -0.117015606 0.007886883
7/1/2001 -0.111561971 0.088888056
8/1/2001 -0.1048364 0.057921198
9/1/2001 -0.080369561 -0.056614554
10/1/2001 -0.018567698 0.351228361
11/1/2001 -0.029814233 0.290041563
12/1/2001 -0.026186478 0.457682991
1/1/2002 0.03682423 -0.034947025
2/1/2002 -0.048341658 -0.023375652
3/1/2002 -0.137249345 0.13811484
4/1/2002 -0.125440168 0.110116942
5/1/2002 -0.149457398 0.097729548
6/1/2002 -0.197350854 0.132174663
7/1/2002 -0.210656378 -0.023299297
8/1/2002 -0.246977383 0.090862648
9/1/2002 -0.263905048 0.214461109
10/1/2002 -0.249512991 -0.069291517
11/1/2002 -0.244295161 -0.146111027
12/1/2002 -0.210546998 -0.10986934
1/1/2003 -0.116991264 0.193987373
2/1/2003 -0.182328646 0.099110138
3/1/2003 -0.213048129 0.060678833
4/1/2003 -0.209334023 0.01622349
5/1/2003 -0.304782337 0.040967241
6/1/2003 -0.359968178 0.139062687
7/1/2003 -0.361705232 0.142637528
8/1/2003 -0.37911444 0.159579637
9/1/2003 -0.402581009 0.241371942
10/1/2003 -0.380646453 0.165747629
11/1/2003 -0.37370979 0.260711576
12/1/2003 -0.33405045 0.200758448
1/1/2004 -0.249640525 0.258120984
2/1/2004 -0.289847769 0.448624746
3/1/2004 -0.306252414 0.484192542
4/1/2004 -0.292962699 0.52804841
5/1/2004 -0.319358441 0.554896568
6/1/2004 -0.363606423 0.471387875
7/1/2004 -0.361850027 0.32382143
8/1/2004 -0.417842877 0.408414645
9/1/2004 -0.456030265 0.307864276
10/1/2004 -0.46116548 0.300332686
11/1/2004 -0.468425193 0.232874395
12/1/2004 -0.448166453 0.310435512
1/1/2005 -0.383441676 0.233416996
2/1/2005 -0.419708514 0.251287993
3/1/2005 -0.432598915 0.317469472
4/1/2005 -0.420059835 0.296259938
5/1/2005 -0.451488516 0.278051234
6/1/2005 -0.464663796 0.308847289
7/1/2005 -0.449515987 0.439138287
8/1/2005 -0.462554326 0.404725272
9/1/2005 -0.471649146 0.385900242
10/1/2005 -0.451219903 0.396440932
11/1/2005 -0.478031971 0.426626553
12/1/2005 -0.466018686 0.348975515
1/1/2006 -0.427971247 0.340215798
2/1/2006 -0.485085356 0.436686624
3/1/2006 -0.519049627 0.333537788
4/1/2006 -0.49943859 0.517673423
5/1/2006 -0.51696665 0.490619749
6/1/2006 -0.52511037 0.433307145
7/1/2006 -0.506319686 0.488013276
8/1/2006 -0.539871165 0.370279094
9/1/2006 -0.54380496 0.366709242
10/1/2006 -0.523425428 0.214086812
11/1/2006 -0.519616275 0.339618619
12/1/2006 -0.462883873 0.318489685
1/1/2007 -0.38854674 0.475111059
2/1/2007 -0.448736617 0.316030982
3/1/2007 -0.496386415 0.252805721
4/1/2007 -0.465695452 0.154273191
5/1/2007 -0.507412334 0.155273803
6/1/2007 -0.531817263 0.203208416
7/1/2007 -0.501987331 0.174737947
8/1/2007 -0.50540822 0.169784402
9/1/2007 -0.466748552 0.280620922
10/1/2007 -0.376632269 0.415020732
11/1/2007 -0.305454956 0.302229091
12/1/2007 -0.201576707 0.407694057
1/1/2008 -0.036803134 0.251089104
2/1/2008 0.01846994 -0.702182903
3/1/2008 0.104828341 -0.561235604
4/1/2008 0.267608625 -0.747017935
5/1/2008 0.341984776 -0.749924456
6/1/2008 0.412224319 -0.781017593
7/1/2008 0.586255371 -0.851256981
8/1/2008 0.669410147 -0.86799877
9/1/2008 0.816519603 -1.106700348
10/1/2008 1.073031369 -0.024906001
11/1/2008 1.214860429 -0.37401048
12/1/2008 1.222071732 -0.673207387
1/1/2009 1.177686973 -1.177831831
2/1/2009 1.008823086 -0.279441977
3/1/2009 0.86215887 -0.377878642
4/1/2009 0.763885312 -0.180369074
5/1/2009 0.604596017 -0.103062223
6/1/2009 0.460548789 -0.039040524
7/1/2009 0.364126304 0.052033792
8/1/2009 0.266645255 0.246935219
9/1/2009 0.179211785 0.367927955
10/1/2009 0.116320327 -0.829333371
11/1/2009 0.040079896 -0.515268616
12/1/2009 0.037501393 -0.202766731
1/1/2010 0.077654252 0.447951325
2/1/2010 0.01488217 0.699573046
3/1/2010 -0.00814362 0.710168179
4/1/2010 0.027641222 0.765172136
5/1/2010 -0.011198113 0.730358785
6/1/2010 -0.043940829 0.580124602
7/1/2010 -0.036851141 0.516722079
8/1/2010 -0.084168124 0.422551589
9/1/2010 -0.118945979 0.47468323
10/1/2010 -0.102357495 0.489152515
11/1/2010 -0.099933692 0.556211396
12/1/2010 -0.047431184 0.464925843
1/1/2011 0.010080761 0.469332255
2/1/2011 -0.015000552 0.15245309
3/1/2011 -0.003294881 0.097115329
4/1/2011 0.015936846 0.062341033
5/1/2011 5.52E-04 -0.038416778
6/1/2011 -0.020886372 0.085033615
7/1/2011 0.018439753 0.166874502
8/1/2011 0.018104644 0.089793369
9/1/2011 -0.002708837 -0.013936448
10/1/2011 -0.017690617 0.394112149
11/1/2011 -0.062609063 0.321273652
12/1/2011 -0.055526533 0.316660639
1/1/2012 -0.016444145 -0.0327499
2/1/2012 -0.058074233 -0.103874915
3/1/2012 -0.105004232 -0.046406335
4/1/2012 -0.124318683 -0.080577919
5/1/2012 -0.185948816 -0.08073569
6/1/2012 -0.251279609 -0.098216407
7/1/2012 -0.250393312 -0.122146869
8/1/2012 -0.283581288 -0.227812056
9/1/2012 -0.282040189 -0.138291956
10/1/2012 -0.270039235 -0.15723657
11/1/2012 -0.292075468 -0.124093771
12/1/2012 -0.297526148 -0.145601257
1/1/2013 -0.289772568 -0.083325201
2/1/2013 -0.342428962 0.077113317
3/1/2013 -0.368916767 0.091848396
4/1/2013 -0.359862335 0.056709834
5/1/2013 -0.406093958 0.120162064
6/1/2013 -0.437064569 0.107306804
7/1/2013 -0.423508306 0.075347901
8/1/2013 -0.451610263 0.230733265
9/1/2013 -0.464488668 0.195653405
10/1/2013 -0.475064538 0.085108618
11/1/2013 -0.48897012 0.09130002
12/1/2013 -0.471137932 0.096015052
1/1/2014 -0.412223556 0.211378724
2/1/2014 -0.438483033 0.026804416
3/1/2014 -0.455516833 0.100605664
4/1/2014 -0.440063726 0.053194965
5/1/2014 -0.431041693 0.003992542
6/1/2014 -0.464702268 0.084956668
7/1/2014 -0.441073063 0.054443626
8/1/2014 -0.454360974 0.085850375
9/1/2014 -0.485347544 0.121215455
10/1/2014 -0.481879924 0.121455588
11/1/2014 -0.487959842 0.12668246
12/1/2014 -0.439138057 0.103407482
1/1/2015 -0.384494643 0.233979351
2/1/2015 -0.400556453 0.536203893
3/1/2015 -0.427399452 0.396238582
4/1/2015 -0.415452017 0.42007806
5/1/2015 -0.44363045 0.517791926
6/1/2015 -0.450924597 0.387647425
7/1/2015 -0.426087571 0.454771238
8/1/2015 -0.443493946 0.390998075
9/1/2015 -0.451511511 0.309805451
10/1/2015 -0.433218516 0.279596564
11/1/2015 -0.447804595 0.288203109
12/1/2015 -0.429563755 0.412317005
1/1/2016 -0.381644056 0.035154272
2/1/2016 -0.449169854 -0.131956212
3/1/2016 -0.493169061 -0.018956967
4/1/2016 -0.491464943 -0.0531443
5/1/2016 -0.52112038 -0.073179056
6/1/2016 -0.527819865 0.027508768
7/1/2016 -0.482327006 -0.051798638
8/1/2016 -0.473422754 -0.073178983
9/1/2016 -0.466665823 0.086638308
10/1/2016 -0.438337024 0.067817138
11/1/2016 -0.434361516 0.104885967
12/1/2016 -0.41625254 -0.075883117
1/1/2017 -0.370640591 0.248296944
2/1/2017 -0.437214632 0.364389937
3/1/2017 -0.492698434 0.311605209
4/1/2017 -0.525935954 0.38269016
5/1/2017 -0.588501594 0.32869078
6/1/2017 -0.625888895 0.369531508
7/1/2017 -0.61103921 0.475900539
8/1/2017 -0.616166279 0.470382304
9/1/2017 -0.589504168 0.371916255
10/1/2017 -0.555499393 0.304430915
11/1/2017 -0.544090695 0.338399118
12/1/2017 -0.503670472 0.311426139
1/1/2018 -0.421535345 0.282689378
2/1/2018 -0.451367836 0.138130742
3/1/2018 -0.456360564 0.122418991
4/1/2018 -0.42072437 0.131073589
5/1/2018 -0.419715922 0.196839853
6/1/2018 -0.426383361 0.075207403
7/1/2018 -0.385231004 0.085743194
8/1/2018 -0.394434299 0.033810262
9/1/2018 -0.386659389 0.067581126
10/1/2018 -0.359280642 0.114719649
11/1/2018 -0.343903872 0.046858652
12/1/2018 -0.305288645 0.173489542
1/1/2019 -0.246985004 0.069405797
2/1/2019 -0.266270838 0.079152155
3/1/2019 -0.267354345 0.110786214
4/1/2019 -0.234886423 0.128706776
5/1/2019 -0.219736896 -0.034668036
6/1/2019 -0.170948469 0.034087546
7/1/2019 -0.089133222 -0.056163572
8/1/2019 0.0094268 0.051571368
9/1/2019 0.153349328 -0.005996356
10/1/2019 0.397917723 0.057881549
11/1/2019 0.697240622 0.054447315
12/1/2019 1.16859508 0.062029723
1/1/2020 1.930499723 0.02922604
2/1/2020 3.038285658 -0.108253393
3/1/2020 5.058885039 -1.3371841
4/1/2020 6.656847918 -0.808472085
5/1/2020 5.950909559 -0.110328312
6/1/2020 5.047957898 0.240239569
7/1/2020 4.197008599 0.356409525
8/1/2020 3.484924434 0.382230199
9/1/2020 2.941212587 0.456512399
10/1/2020 2.588521374 0.296161533
11/1/2020 2.301313194 0.291459385
12/1/2020 2.104844521 0.335310418
1/1/2021 2.030587408 0.421957241
2/1/2021 1.920121503 0.288602128
3/1/2021 1.936602484 0.320005347

Note: this figure shows global REU and IP growth from December 2000 to April 2021. Global REU, in the left axis, is computed as the average REU index across all 30 countries in the sample. To facilitate interpretability, global REU is expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean. We standardize REU for each country and then take the average across all countries. Each country's IP growth is computed as the 12-month rolling average of 1-month IP growth series, and global IP is calculated as the average across all 30 countries in the sample.

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Figure 2: IP and REU during the 2008 GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic

Largest IP Decline (Percent)

  Covid-19 2008 GFC
Low REU -2.63852 -4.28309
Medium REU -4.09945 -7.09436
High REU -4.1688 -8.15187

Note: this figure shows the relation between countries' IP declines and REU indexes during the 2008 GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic. In each episode, countries are grouped into low, medium, or high REU bins corresponding to maximum monthly REU indexes falling in the lowest, middle, or highest tercile, respectively, among all countries. IP decline is computed as the maximum 6-month rolling window average IP decline, averaged across all countries in each bin. The time periods covered for the 2008 GFC and COVID-19 pandemic are January 2007 to December 2008 and January 2020 to April 2021, respectively.

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Figure 3: Effect of REU on IP growth for different levels of COVID-19 cases and stimulus responses

Panel A: No Stimulus Packages
Case Levels (Percent)

Time Horizon (months) Mean Cases Minimum Cases Maximum Cases
2 -7.375566482 -0.68 -61.79659406
3 -6.127730259 -1.186 -46.29371763
4 -4.821463038 -1.205 -34.21578468
5 -3.775941073 -1.132 -25.26568215
6 -2.677110239 -0.798 -17.95036761

Panel B: Maximum COVID Cases
Response level (Percent)

Time Horizon (months) Mean Response Minimum Response Maximum Response
2 -29.95647191 -61.79659406 -7.085694063
3 -22.43972447 -46.29371763 -5.305387627
4 -16.72981596 -34.21578468 -4.169634681
5 -12.00766407 -25.26568215 -2.484422146
6 -8.763709414 -17.95036761 -2.16492761

Note: this figure shows how heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases (left panel) and stimulus packages in response to the pandemic (right panel) affect the relation between IP growth and REU during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the coefficients in table 1, we plot the effect of REU on IP. In the left panel, countries are assumed to have no stimulus packages, and cases vary between the minimum, mean, and maximum number of monthly COVID-19 cases per billion observed. In the right panel, countries are assumed to have the maximum number of COVID-19 cases per billion, and policy response indexes vary between the minimum, mean, and maximum policy responses observed.

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Last Update: February 18, 2022