Accessible Version
The Effect of Mortgage Forbearance on House Prices During COVID-19 Accessible Data
Figure 1 (a) National Unemployment Rate and House Price-to-Rent Ratio
Panel (a) shows the log of the house price-to-rent ratio and the unemployment rate from 1978 through 2020 at a quarterly frequency. The two series are cyclical and are negatively correlated.
Note: National house price is from Zillow from 1996-present, and is from authors’ calculations using county-level Corelogic price indices from 1978-1995. Rent is BLS tenant rent from 1978 - 1982, and BLS OER rent thereafter.
Figure 1 (b) Change in County Unemployment Rate and House Price Growth
Panel (b) shows that the 12-month change in log house price is essentially unrelated to the 12-month change in the unemployment rate between July 2019 and July 2020. In contrast, the two series are strongly negatively related over the time period from July 2008 to July 2009. The figure shows a binscatter of the relationship using county-level data for each of the two time periods.
Note: Binscatter of change in log house prices and the unemployment rate, both measured at the county level.
Figure 2. Unemployment Rate and Mortgage Forbearance by County
The 12-month change in the county-level unemployment rate between May and July of 2020 is strongly positively related to the percent of mortgages in forbearance over the same time period. The figure shows a binscatter of the relationship using county-level data. The slope of the line describing the relationship is 0.5.
Note: Binscatter of unemployment rate and mortgage forbearance, controlling for state fixed effects. Mortgage forbearance and unemployment rate measured in percentage points. Forbearance is measured as the share of mortgages in forbearance between May and July of 2020 less the share of mortgages in forbearance between January and March 2020. Unemployment rate is measured as the average unemployment rate between May and July of 2020 less the average unemployment rate between May and July of 2019.