Accessible Version

Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt: How Concerned Should We Be?, Accessible Data

Figure 1a - EME NFC Debt (in dollars)
Quarter All EMEs China* EME ex. China
2006:Q1   2.83  
2006:Q2   3.00  
2006:Q3   3.11  
2006:Q4   3.22  
2007:Q1   3.24  
2007:Q2 6.97 3.47 3.51
2007:Q3 7.43 3.66 3.77
2007:Q4 7.85 3.85 4.00
2008:Q1 8.52 4.22 4.30
2008:Q2 9.02 4.49 4.52
2008:Q3 9.03 4.67 4.36
2008:Q4 8.90 4.80 4.10
2009:Q1 9.36 5.43 3.93
2009:Q2 10.15 5.92 4.24
2009:Q3 10.68 6.18 4.51
2009:Q4 11.04 6.40 4.64
2010:Q1 11.51 6.74 4.78
2010:Q2 11.86 7.14 4.72
2010:Q3 12.63 7.52 5.11
2010:Q4 13.20 7.90 5.30
2011:Q1 13.94 8.34 5.60
2011:Q2 14.65 8.80 5.86
2011:Q3 14.68 9.19 5.49
2011:Q4 15.28 9.71 5.57
2012:Q1 16.20 10.27 5.93
2012:Q2 16.41 10.61 5.81
2012:Q3 17.24 11.18 6.07
2012:Q4 18.01 11.75 6.25
2013:Q1 19.01 12.56 6.46
2013:Q2 19.58 13.21 6.36
2013:Q3 20.36 13.80 6.56
2013:Q4 20.99 14.34 6.65
2014:Q1 21.51 14.68 6.83
2014:Q2 22.46 15.33 7.13
2014:Q3 22.72 15.84 6.87
2014:Q4 22.72 16.15 6.57
2015:Q1 23.25 16.85 6.39
2015:Q2 23.93 17.39 6.53
2015:Q3 23.65 17.52 6.13
2015:Q4 24.18 17.97 6.21
2016:Q1 25.24 18.72 6.52
2016:Q2 25.20 18.61 6.59
2016:Q3 25.53 18.83 6.70

Source: BIS

China includes Hong Kong Return to table

Return to text.

Figure 1b – EME NFC Debt (share of GDP)
Quarter All EMEs China* EME ex. China
2006:Q1   108.68  
2006:Q2   110.37  
2006:Q3   109.22  
2006:Q4   107.38  
2007:Q1   102.04  
2007:Q2 57.53 102.62 40.10
2007:Q3 57.89 101.53 40.82
2007:Q4 57.49 98.70 41.03
2008:Q1 58.92 99.33 42.11
2008:Q2 58.73 98.79 41.87
2008:Q3 60.14 98.52 42.43
2008:Q4 63.34 98.08 44.77
2009:Q1 69.01 109.38 45.72
2009:Q2 70.50 117.38 45.26
2009:Q3 71.87 120.13 46.34
2009:Q4 71.71 120.48 46.02
2010:Q1 71.34 121.68 45.07
2010:Q2 72.26 123.00 44.49
2010:Q3 71.63 122.85 44.37
2010:Q4 71.80 122.17 44.49
2011:Q1 71.43 122.49 44.08
2011:Q2 71.35 121.99 43.95
2011:Q3 73.64 120.65 44.56
2011:Q4 74.71 121.63 44.65
2012:Q1 74.98 124.67 44.37
2012:Q2 77.48 126.86 45.28
2012:Q3 77.98 129.44 45.00
2012:Q4 79.57 131.85 45.58
2013:Q1 82.35 137.08 46.36
2013:Q2 85.39 139.35 47.33
2013:Q3 87.58 141.61 48.57
2013:Q4 88.82 142.19 49.09
2014:Q1 90.23 146.4 49.44
2014:Q2 91.28 149.36 49.71
2014:Q3 93.67 149.89 50.23
2014:Q4 96.98 151.64 51.43
2015:Q1 100.39 155.28 51.97
2015:Q2 101.67 157.29 52.37
2015:Q3 105.32 159.77 53.34
2015:Q4 108.29 164.64 54.40
2016:Q1 109.05 167.89 54.35
2016:Q2 108.37 168.65 53.94
2016:Q3 107.87 168.07 53.77

Source: BIS.

China includes Hong Kong Return to table

** The 1996 GDP-weighted average for Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand is close to 100 percent of GDP

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Figure 2 - Change in Credit to the Private Nonfinancial Sector
Country Households Non financial corporates (NFCs) Both
Mexico 2.83 11.40 14.23
Indonesia 5.22 8.40 13.62
Russia 5.48 14.50 19.98
Malaysia 18.18 8.60 26.78
Singapore 4.83 44.80 49.63
Korea 19.31 15.10 34.41
Brazil 7.42 9.70 17.12
Turkey 6.40 34.20 40.60
China* 23.30 69.37 92.67
EMEs 14.8 50.38 65.18

Source: BIS.

Includes Hong Kong Return to table

** Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia & Korea. Horizontal lines denote credit growth over 8 years preceding each crisis.

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Figure 3 - FX Share of NFC Debt
Year All EMEs EMEs Ex. China
1995 44.89 70.46
1996 43.18 78.50
1997 41.12 79.45
1998 37.90 78.76
1999 35.93 76.61
2000 31.39 72.09
2001 26.10 45.65
2002 25.04 45.34
2003 24.25 44.50
2004 23.47 41.65
2005 22.58 39.69
2006 22.06 37.72
2007 22.50 36.66
2008 21.80 39.30
2009 18.87 35.49
2010 18.40 34.21
2011 18.32 34.97
2012 18.07 33.80
2013 18.63 36.02
2014 16.44 32.00

Source: Ayala et al. (2015) and Claessens et. Al. (1999)

* Average of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand.

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Figure 4 – Earnings
Quarter AFE EME Ex. China China
2005:Q4 11.73 14.74 16.11
2006:Q1 11.89 14.76 10.62
2006:Q2 12.10 14.95 15.46
2006:Q3 12.19 14.88 15.52
2006:Q4 12.06 15.05 15.46
2007:Q1 12.05 14.96 14.53
2007:Q2 11.99 14.91 13.90
2007:Q3 11.90 15.03 13.13
2007:Q4 12.00 15.19 12.79
2008:Q1 11.93 15.54 12.40
2008:Q2 11.81 16.01 11.71
2008:Q3 11.67 15.99 11.44
2008:Q4 10.89 14.53 10.04
2009:Q1 9.92 13.23 9.29
2009:Q2 9.07 11.78 8.69
2009:Q3 8.67 11.21 8.58
2009:Q4 9.02 12.23 9.28
2010:Q1 9.66 12.94 9.84
2010:Q2 10.10 13.34 10.13
2010:Q3 10.38 13.30 10.20
2010:Q4 10.60 13.19 10.50
2011:Q1 10.69 13.06 10.56
2011:Q2 10.83 12.84 10.38
2011:Q3 10.79 12.53 10.21
2011:Q4 10.61 12.32 9.58
2012:Q1 10.43 12.11 8.93
2012:Q2 10.21 11.67 8.30
2012:Q3 10.04 11.56 7.90
2012:Q4 9.89 11.36 7.80
2013:Q1 9.76 10.96 7.78
2013:Q2 9.67 11.05 7.79
2013:Q3 9.73 10.90 7.88
2013:Q4 9.84 10.70 7.81
2014:Q1 9.85 10.68 7.65
2014:Q2 9.88 10.50 7.44
2014:Q3 9.78 10.25 7.04
2014:Q4 9.61 10.05 6.65
2015:Q1 9.44 9.92 6.27
2015:Q2 9.36 9.85 6.00
2015:Q3 9.21 9.76 5.61
2015:Q4 9.12 9.82 5.53
2016:Q1 9.07 9.76 5.39
2016:Q2 9.03 9.96 5.28
2016:Q3 9.10 10.09 5.44
2016:Q4 9.23 10.37 5.80

Source: Staff estimate using Capital IQ.

* 4-quarter moving average of EBITDA/Assets

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Figure 5 - Interest Coverage Ratio
Quarter AFE China EME Ex. China Brazil
2005:Q1 7.98 41.58 7.39 5.01
2005:Q2 8.19 19.57 7.32 4.74
2005:Q3 8.42 18.22 7.17 4.57
2005:Q4 8.27 15.46 6.72 4.06
2006:Q1 8.35 8.40 6.77 4.19
2006:Q2 8.53 11.49 6.94 4.26
2006:Q3 8.51 10.66 7.17 4.29
2006:Q4 8.44 10.42 7.29 4.42
2007:Q1 8.38 9.98 7.35 4.43
2007:Q2 7.98 9.92 7.50 4.42
2007:Q3 7.68 9.08 7.35 4.49
2007:Q4 7.49 9.16 7.43 4.66
2008:Q1 7.32 8.07 7.55 4.86
2008:Q2 7.39 7.34 7.53 5.05
2008:Q3 7.35 6.74 7.29 4.69
2008:Q4 6.8 5.83 6.50 4.46
2009:Q1 6.26 5.47 5.60 3.83
2009:Q2 5.75 5.64 4.66 3.17
2009:Q3 5.62 6.16 4.43 3.21
2009:Q4 6.01 7.20 4.98 3.41
2010:Q1 6.65 8.37 5.53 3.92
2010:Q2 7.09 8.92 5.98 4.34
2010:Q3 7.49 9.19 6.44 4.78
2010:Q4 7.79 9.34 6.53 5.16
2011:Q1 7.84 9.19 6.78 4.79
2011:Q2 8.10 8.82 7.02 4.78
2011:Q3 8.03 8.32 6.78 4.42
2011:Q4 7.97 7.56 6.73 4.14
2012:Q1 7.97 6.72 6.41 4.25
2012:Q2 7.75 5.98 5.95 3.89
2012:Q3 7.73 5.56 6.00 3.96
2012:Q4 7.60 5.55 5.92 4.22
2013:Q1 7.58 5.42 5.92 4.27
2013:Q2 7.56 5.43 6.11 4.50
2013:Q3 7.61 5.50 6.07 4.59
2013:Q4 7.94 5.40 6.05 4.33
2014:Q1 7.92 5.12 5.97 4.18
2014:Q2 7.97 4.95 5.79 4.05
2014:Q3 7.83 4.62 5.61 3.69
2014:Q4 7.72 4.42 5.52 3.64
2015:Q1 7.69 4.27 5.35 3.33
2015:Q2 7.76 4.30 5.20 3.07
2015:Q3 7.75 4.01 5.01 2.81
2015:Q4 7.72 3.76 5.04 2.50
2016:Q1 7.74 3.72 5.00 2.38
2016:Q2 7.70 3.59 5.10 2.63
2016:Q3 7.91 3.94 5.29 2.95
2016:Q4 8.10 4.63 5.23 2.94

Source: Staff estimate using Capital IQ and World Bank

* 4- quarter moving average of EBITDA/Interest Expense

** The 1996 average of Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia's ICR during the Asian Financial Crisis was 2.

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Figure 6 - Leverage & ICR, 2016:Q3
Country Leverage Interest Coverage
Argentina 1.17 2.77
Brazil 1.16 3.01
Chile 0.82 4.76
China 0.76 3.63
Hungary 0.37 11.10
India 0.94 4.83
Indonesia 0.48 4.46
Malaysia 0.44 9.40
Mexico 4.88 4.91
Poland 0.42 11.25
Russia 0.90 6.58
South Africa 0.89 4.17
South Korea 0.56 6.10
Thailand 0.79 7.84
Turkey 0.82 4.19

Source: Authors' Estimates using Capital IQ.

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Figure 7 - Changes in Leverage & ICR, 2011:Q1 to 2016:Q3
Country Leverage Interest Coverage
Argentina 0.66 -7.17
Brazil 0.50 -1.64
Chile 0.09 -4.85
China 0.11 -4.26
Hungary -0.13 0.18
India -0.16 0.44
Indonesia -0.34 0.83
Malaysia -0.24 2.42
Mexico 3.83 1.82
Poland 0.18 2.45
Russia 0.58 -5.71
South Africa 0.38 -4.05
South Korea -0.10 0.39
Thailand 0.06 -0.27
Turkey 0.12 -0.12

Source: Authors' Estimates using Capital IQ.

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Figure 8 – Debt at Risk to Total Debt
Quarter EME EME ex. China China
2015:Q4 15.65 21.23  
2016:Q1 17.17 21.26  
2016:Q2 18.37 21.40  
2006:Q3 20.20 21.27 13.98
2006:Q4 17.89 18.20 14.79
2007:Q1 15.71 15.26 14.95
2007:Q2 13.66 12.33 15.51
2007:Q3 13.23 11.85 16.11
2007:Q4 13.89 13.53 15.86
2008:Q1 14.71 15.22 15.43
2008:Q2 15.84 17.25 14.93
2008:Q3 16.21 17.20 17.33
2008:Q4 18.31 18.15 20.19
2009:Q1 21.24 19.14 25.94
2009:Q2 24.02 21.15 30.22
2009:Q3 24.22 21.63 29.30
2009:Q4 23.95 22.46 27.77
2010:Q1 21.74 22.08 22.17
2010:Q2 19.45 20.81 17.61
2010:Q3 17.89 19.99 14.61
2010:Q4 16.76 18.54 14.19
2011:Q1 16.56 18.29 13.72
2011:Q2 15.71 17.28 13.60
2011:Q3 16.53 18.09 13.49
2011:Q4 17.76 17.55 15.13
2012:Q1 19.15 17.42 17.53
2012:Q2 22.12 17.60 23.22
2012:Q3 23.10 17.02 27.00
2012:Q4 23.63 18.32 27.51
2013:Q1 23.99 18.87 28.66
2013:Q2 23.75 20.07 27.20
2013:Q3 25.02 21.59 28.75
2013:Q4 25.43 22.13 29.30
2014:Q1 26.67 22.42 30.48
2014:Q2 26.50 21.71 30.86
2014:Q3 26.84 20.88 30.86
2014:Q4 28.01 20.98 31.51
2015:Q1 28.11 21.21 31.66
2015:Q2 28.50 21.88 31.07
2015:Q3 28.92 22.16 31.13
2015:Q4 28.87 21.29 32.44
2016:Q1 28.88 20.49 33.30
2016:Q2 29.32 19.05 34.59
2016:Q3 28.19 17.59 34.64

Source: Authors' estimates using Capital IQ data through 2016 Q3. EME aggregate comprises the 15 countries listed in Table 1. Computed as the debt of firms with ICRs less than 2, divided by the total debt of the firms in our sample. Numbers for 2016 Q3 do not match those in Table 1 because here we show the 4-quarter moving average.

* 1996 GDP-weighted average for Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand Asian financial crisis = 48%

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Chart 1 – Debt at Risk to Total Debt (percent), as of 2016 Q3
Country All Sectors Consumer Energy Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecomm. Utilities
Argentina 22 (M) 36 (N) 1 (S) 0 (S) 93 (E) 0 (S) 39 (N) 0 (S) 85 (E)
Brazil 30 (N) 49 (E) 7 (S) 34 (N) 75 (E) 0 (S) 7 (S) 85 (E) 58 (E)
Chile 4 (S) 10 (L) 9 (S) n.a. 0 (S) 0 (S) 0 (S) 0 (S) 0 (S)
China 32 (N) 45 (N) 19 (M) 7 (S) 50 (E) 20 (M) 44 (N) 0 (S) 5 (S)
Hungary 1 (S) n.a. 0 (S) 25 (N) 0 (S) 0 (S) n.a. n.a. n.a.
India 23 (M) 16 (L) 8 (S) 39 (N) 12 (L) 21 (M) 38 (N) 7 (S) 82 (E)
Indonesia 15 (L) 30 (N) 24 (M) 28 (N) 11 (L) 20 (M) 64 (E) 28 (N) 0 (S)
Malaysia 4 (S) 7 (S) 2 (S) 0 (S) 5 (S) 10 (L) 20 (M) 0 (S) 0 (S)
Mexico 2 (S) 6 (S) 1 (S) 100 (E) 10 (L) n.a. 0 (S) 3 (S) 0 (S)
Poland 2 (S) 2 (S) 2 (S) 1 (S) 7 (S) 5 (S) 1 (S) 4 (S) 0 (S)
Russia 4 (S) 14 (L) 0 (S) n.a. 5 (S) 0 (S) 1 (S) 0 (S) 92 (E)
South Africa 10 (L) 55 (E) 100 (E) 0 (S) 5 (S) 0 (S) 1 (S) 0 (S) 0 (S)
South Korea 13 (L) 2 (S) 0 (S) 18 (L) 31 (N) 13 (L) 4 (S) 0 (S) 2 (S)
Thailand 6 (S) 3 (S) 0 (S) 5 (S) 17 (L) 10 (L) 7 (S) 0 (S) 20 (M)
Turkey 20 (M) 31 (N) 100 (E) 0 (S) 9 (S) 32 (N) 26 (N) n.a. 100 (E)
EME ex China 15 (L) 15 (L) 4 (S) 27 (N) 26 (N) 12 (L) 11 (L) 15 (L) 18
All EMEs1 24 (M) 26 (N) 12 (L) 14 (L) 40 (N) 14 (L) 30 (N) 13 (L) 9 (S)
DAR range2 Elevated (E) Notable (N) Moderate (M) Low (L) Subdued (S)
Min 47 25 19 10 0
Max 100 46 24 18 9

Source: Authors' estimates using Capital IQ, as of 2016:Q3.

1. EME aggregate includes the 15 countries listed in the table. Return to table

2. DAR=Debt at Risk. The color gradations are based on the distribution of quarterly values for all the countries in our sample since 2006. Specifically, the cutoffs are based on the following percentiles of the historical distribution: Elevated: >=95th percentile, Notable: 75th - 94th percentile, Moderate: 55th - 74th percentile, Low: 15th - 54th percentile, Subdued: 0th - 14th percentile.Return to table

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Chart 2 – Leverage (Ratio of Debt to Equity), as of 2016 Q3
Country All sectors Consumer Energy Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecomm. Utilities
Argentina 1.2 (E) 0.8 (M) 1.4 (E) 1.3 (E) 1.7 (E) 0.8 (M) 0.4 (S) 0.4 (S) 1.8 (E)
Brazil 1.1 (N) 1.2 (E) 1.5 (E) 0.5 (L) 2 (E) 0.8 (M) 0.9 (N) 0.7 (M) 0.9 (N)
Chile 0.8 (M) 0.9 (N) 4.3 (E) n.a. 1.2 (E) 0.2 (S) 0.5 (L) 1.1 (N) 0.5 (L)
China 0.8 (M) 0.6 (L) 0.5 (L) 0.4 (S) 1.1 (N) 0.4 (S) 1.1 (N) 0.7 (M) 0.9 (N)
Hungary 0.4 (S) n.a. 0.5 (L) 0.1 (S) 0.4 (S) 0.4 (S) n.a. n.a. n.a.
India 0.9 (N) 0.9 (N) 0.8 (M) 0.6 (L) 1.5 (E) 0.2 (S) 1 (N) 1.8 (E) 1.2 (E)
Indonesia 0.5 (L) 0.7 (M) 0.7 (M) 0.5 (L) 1.2 (E) 0.1 (S) 0.5 (L) 0.6 (L) 0.3 (S)
Malaysia 0.4 (S) 0.4 (S) 0.2 (S) 0.3 (S) 0.6 (L) 0.1 (S) 0.6 (L) 0.8 (M) 1.2 (E)
Mexico1 4.6 (E) 0.7 (M) Elevated (E) 0.6 (L) 1.1 (N) n.a. 0.8 (M) 3 (E) 1.9 (E)
Poland 0.4 (S) 0.8 (M) 0.3 (S) 0.4 (S) 0.6 (L) 0.2 (S) 0.4 (S) 0.2 (S) 0.4 (S)
Russia 0.9 (N) 1.4 (E) 0.4 (S) n.a. 1 (N) 0.3 (S) 1.4 (E) 1.4 (E) 0.1 (S)
South Africa 0.9 (N) 0.5 (L) 0.9 (N) 0.8 (M) 0.8 (M) 0.4 (S) 0.8 (M) 0.2 (S) 1.8 (E)
South Korea 0.6 (L) 0.6 (L) 0.6 (L) 0.4 (S) 0.9 (N) 0.1 (S) 0.6 (L) 0.6 (L) 1 (N)
Thailand 0.8 (M) 1 (N) 0.7 (M) 0.5 (L) 1.2 (E) 0.5 (L) 0.6 (L) 1.1 (N) 0.9 (N)
Turkey 0.8 (M) 0.8 (M) 0.8 (M) 0.4 (S) 0.9 (N) 0.6 (L) 0.4 (S) n.a. 1.7 (E)
EME ex China 0.8 (M) 0.7 (M) 1.3 (E) 0.5 (L) 1 (N) 0.2 (S) 0.7 (M) 1.1 (N) 0.8 (M)
All EMEs2 0.8 (M) 0.6 (L) 0.7 (M) 0.4 (S) 1.1 (N) 0.3 (S) 0.8 (M) 0.9 (N) 0.9 (N)
Leverage range3 Elevated (E) Notable (N) Moderate (M) Low (L) Subdued (S)
Min 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0
Max 10 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4

Source: Authors' estimates using Capital IQ, as of 2016:Q3.

1. Because Pemex has negative equity, we cannot compute leverage for the energy sector in Mexico. See footnote 9 in the main text for details. Return to table

2. EME aggregate includes the 15 countries listed in the table. Return to table

3. The color gradations are based on the distribution of quarterly values for all the countries in our sample since 2006. Specifically, the cutoffs are based on the following percentiles of the historical distribution: Elevated: >=95th percentile, Notable: 75th - 94th percentile, Moderate: 55th - 74th percentile, Low: 15th - 54th percentile, Subdued: 0th - 14th percentile. Return to table

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Figure 9 –Debt at Risk to GDP
Quarter EME EME ex China China
2006:Q3     15.26
2006:Q4     15.88
2007:Q1     15.26
2007:Q2     15.92
2007:Q3     16.35
2007:Q4     15.65
2008:Q1 8.67 6.10 15.32
2008:Q2 9.30 7.04 14.75
2008:Q3 9.75 7.06 17.07
2008:Q4 11.60 7.64 19.80
2009:Q1 14.65 8.01 28.37
2009:Q2 16.93 8.97 35.48
2009:Q3 17.41 9.69 35.20
2009:Q4 17.18 10.27 33.46
2010:Q1 15.51 9.99 26.98
2010:Q2 14.06 9.65 21.67
2010:Q3 12.82 9.20 17.95
2010:Q4 12.03 8.36 17.33
2011:Q1 11.83 8.14 16.81
2011:Q2 11.21 7.67 16.59
2011:Q3 12.17 8.05 16.28
2011:Q4 13.27 7.74 18.40
2012:Q1 14.36 7.66 21.86
2012:Q2 17.14 7.84 29.46
2012:Q3 18.02 7.60 34.94
2012:Q4 18.80 8.13 36.27
2013:Q1 19.76 8.55 39.29
2013:Q2 20.28 9.03 37.90
2013:Q3 21.91 9.84 40.72
2013:Q4 22.59 10.26 41.67
2014:Q1 24.06 10.61 44.63
2014:Q2 24.19 10.54 46.09
2014:Q3 25.14 10.25 46.26
2014:Q4 27.16 10.37 47.78
2015:Q1 28.22 10.54 49.16
2015:Q2 28.98 10.99 48.87
2015:Q3 30.46 11.40 49.74
2015:Q4 31.27 11.07 53.41
2016:Q1 31.50 10.73 55.91
2016:Q2 31.77 10.16 58.33
2016:Q3 30.41 9.57 58.22

Source: Authors' estimates using Capital IQ data (through 2016 Q3) and BIS data (through 2016 Q3). EME aggregate comprises the 15 countries listed in Table 1. Numbers for 2016 Q3 do not match those in Table 4 because here we show the 4-quarter moving average.

* 1996 GDP-weighted average for Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand Asian Financial Crisis = 50%.

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Chart 3 – Derivation of Debt at Risk to GDP, as of 2016 Q3
Country DAR/Total Debt (%) Total Debt/GDP (%) DAR/GDP (%)
Argentina 22 (M) 13 (S) 3 (L)
Brazil 30 (N) 44 (L) 13 (N)
Chile 4 (S) 108 (N) 4 (L)
China 32 (N) 166 (E) 53 (E)
Hungary 1 (S) 72 (M) 1 (S)
India 23 (M) 50 (M) 12 (N)
Indonesia 15 (L) 23 (L) 3 (L)
Malaysia 4 (S) 67 (M) 3 (L)
Mexico 2 (S) 27 (L) 1 (S)
Poland 2 (S) 48 (L) 1 (S)
Russia 4 (S) 54 (M) 2 (S)
South Africa 10 (L) 38 (L) 4 (L)
South Korea 13 (L) 104 (N) 14 (N)
Thailand 6 (S) 50 (M) 3 (L)
Turkey 20 (M) 64 (M) 13 (N)
EME ex China 15 (L) 54 (M) 8 (S)
All EMEs1 24 (M) 108 (N) 26 (N)
Ranges2 DAR/Total Debt (%) Total Debt/GDP (%) DAR/GDP (%)
Elevated (E) 47 to 100 111 to 168 29 to 100
Notable (N) 25 to 46 83 to 110 11 to 28
Moderate (M) 19 to 24 50 to 82 8 to 10
Low (L) 10 to 18 19 to 49 3 to 7
Subdued (S) 0 to 9 0 to 18 0 to 2

Source: Authors' estimates using Capital IQ and BIS, as of 2016 Q3.

1. EME aggregate includes the 15 countries listed in the table. Return to table

2. DAR=Debt at risk. The color gradations are based on the distribution of quarterly values for all the countries in our sample since 2006. Specifically, the cutoffs are based on the following percentiles of the historical distribution: Elevated: >=95th percentile, Notable: 75th - 94th percentile, Moderate: 55th - 74th percentile, Low: 15th - 54th percentile, Subdued: 0th - 14th percentile. Return to table

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Figure 10 – Debt at Risk to Total Debt
Region Current With Shocks
EME* 24.72 16.69
EME* ex China 14.89 19.52
Indonesia 15.32 47.11
Mexico 2.50 50.16
China 32.01 15.98
Brazil 30.26 14.33
India 22.79 12.38
Russia 4.06 28.72
South Africa 10.05 19.86
Turkey 20.32 5.19
Argentina 21.96 2.82
South Korea 12.80 10.53
Chile 3.68 17.65
Malaysia 3.55 16.74
Thailand 5.96 13.04
Poland 1.59 5.01
Hungary 1.37 0.00

Source: Authors' estimates using Capital IQ.

* EME aggregate comprises the 15 EMEs shown individually. Return to table

** 1996 GDP-weighted average for Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand, based on a sample of 262 firms is 48% (Asian financial crisis).

Return to text.

Figure 11 – Debt at Risk to GDP
Region Current With Shocks
EME* 27.14 18.33
EME* ex China 7.83 10.27
China 53.66 26.78
South Korea 13.53 11.13
Chile 3.95 18.94
Brazil 13.56 6.42
Russia 2.19 15.51
India 11.33 6.15
Turkey 11.89 3.04
Indonesia 3.54 10.88
Mexico 0.64 12.94
Malaysia 2.34 11.03
South Africa 3.77 7.45
Thailand 3.01 6.58
Poland 0.77 2.41
Argentina 2.70 0.35
Hungary 1.04 0.00

Source: Authors' estimates using Capital IQ.

* EME aggregate comprises the 15 EMEs shown individually. Return to table

** 1996 GDP-weighted average for Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand, based on a sample of 262 firms.

Return to text.

Last Update: June 01, 2017