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Figure 1: Monthly change in PCE Prices ex. Food and Energy
| Date | Percent |
|---|---|
| Jan-20 | 0.2 |
| Feb-20 | 0.2 |
| Mar-20 | -0.1 |
| Apr-20 | -0.5 |
| May-20 | 0.2 |
| Jun-20 | 0.4 |
| Jul-20 | 0.3 |
| Aug-20 | 0.3 |
| Sep-20 | 0.1 |
| Oct-20 | 0.0 |
| Nov-20 | 0.0 |
| Dec-20 | 0.3 |
| Jan-21 | 0.2 |
| Feb-21 | 0.1 |
| Mar-21 | 0.4 |
| Apr-21 | 0.6 |
| May-21 | 0.6 |
| Jun-21 | 0.5 |
| Jul-21 | 0.3 |
| Aug-21 | 0.3 |
| Sep-21 | 0.2 |
| Oct-21 | 0.5 |
| Nov-21 | 0.5 |
| Dec-21 | 0.5 |
| Jan-22 | 0.5 |
| Feb-22 | 0.3 |
| Mar-22 | 0.3 |
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 1: Comparison of 2021 Q4/Q4 PCE Price Inflation Forecasts
(Percent)
| Month | SEP median | Blue Chip consensus |
|---|---|---|
| March | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| June | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| September | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| December | 5.3 | 5.2 |
Note: PCE is personal consumption expenditures.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Summary of Economic Projections and Blue Chip Economic Indicators.
Table 2: Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Initial Report and Current Estimate
(Thousands)
| Month | Initial report | Current estimate | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| August | 235 | 517 | 282 |
| September | 194 | 424 | 230 |
| October | 531 | 677 | 146 |
| November | 210 | 647 | 437 |
| December | 199 | 588 | 389 |
| Total | 1369 | 2853 | 1484 |
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Last Update:
May 06, 2022