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Release Date: February 15, 2024
Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Notice Below

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in January after recording no change in December. In January, manufacturing output declined 0.5 percent and mining output fell 2.3 percent; winter weather contributed to the declines in both sectors. The index for utilities jumped 6.0 percent, as demand for heating surged following a move from unusually mild temperatures in December to unusually cold temperatures in January. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in January was identical to its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector moved down 0.2 percentage point in January to 78.5 percent, a rate that is 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary
Seasonally adjusted
Industrial production 2017=100 Percent change
2023 2024
Jan.[p]
2023 2024
Jan.[p]
Jan. '23 to
Jan. '24
Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[r] Dec.[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[r] Dec.[r]
       
Total index 103.1 103.2 102.4 102.7 102.7 102.6 -.1 .1 -.8 .3 .0 -.1 .0
Previous estimates 103.2 103.3 102.5 102.4 102.5   .0 .1 -.8 .0 .1    
       
Major market groups
Final Products 101.7 101.4 100.6 101.2 101.3 101.7 -.1 -.3 -.8 .7 .1 .4 .3
Consumer goods 102.3 102.1 101.2 101.9 102.0 102.6 -.1 -.2 -.9 .7 .1 .6 .4
Business equipment 96.8 95.8 94.9 95.7 95.4 95.3 -.3 -1.0 -.9 .8 -.3 -.2 -2.0
Nonindustrial supplies 100.3 100.5 100.5 100.3 99.8 99.3 .2 .2 .0 -.2 -.5 -.5 -1.9
Construction 100.5 101.4 101.3 101.1 100.6 99.6 -.6 .9 -.1 -.2 -.5 -.9 -4.1
Materials 105.4 105.8 104.6 104.8 104.9 104.5 -.2 .4 -1.1 .2 .1 -.4 .5
       
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below) 99.4 99.5 98.7 99.1 99.1 98.6 -.1 .1 -.8 .4 .1 -.5 -.9
Previous estimates 99.5 99.6 98.8 99.0 99.1   .1 .1 -.8 .2 .1    
Mining 119.4 120.4 119.5 119.1 120.1 117.3 -.5 .8 -.7 -.3 .9 -2.3 -1.2
Utilities 107.7 106.7 105.7 106.1 104.3 110.5 .7 -.9 -.9 .3 -1.7 6.0 9.0

Capacity utilization Percent of capacity Capacity
growth
Average
1972-
2023
1988-
89
high
1990-
91
low
1994-
95
high
 
2009
low
 
2023
Jan.
   
2023 2024
Jan.[p]
Jan. '23 to
Jan. '24
Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[r] Dec.[r]
       
Total industry 79.6 85.2 78.8 85.0 66.6 79.6 79.4 79.4 78.6 78.8 78.7 78.5 1.4
Previous estimates             79.5 79.5 78.7 78.6 78.6    
       
Manufacturing (see note below) 78.2 85.6 77.3 84.6 63.4 78.3 77.6 77.6 76.9 77.1 77.1 76.6 1.3
Previous estimates             77.7 77.7 77.0 77.1 77.1    
Mining 86.5 86.3 84.3 88.6 78.9 92.8 93.6 94.5 93.9 93.6 94.5 92.2 -.6
Utilities 84.4 93.2 84.7 93.2 78.1 70.4 73.4 72.5 71.6 71.6 70.2 74.2 3.5
       
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 85.7 87.9 84.8 90.0 76.9 89.8 91.3 92.1 91.2 91.3 92.2 90.1 -.5
Primary and semifinished 80.2 86.5 78.0 87.8 63.6 76.8 77.2 77.2 76.6 76.7 76.3 76.7 1.4
Finished 76.7 83.4 77.5 80.7 66.3 77.7 76.2 75.8 75.1 75.3 75.2 75.1 2.2
[r] Revised. [p] Preliminary.

Market Groups

The major market groups posted mixed results in January. The index for consumer goods rose 0.6 percent with modest gains in its durable and nondurable components. The indexes for business equipment, construction supplies, and business supplies all declined less than 1 percent; the index for construction supplies was 4.1 percent below its year-earlier level. Meanwhile, the output of defense and space equipment continued to post solid growth in January and was over 13 percent above its year-earlier level. Materials output decreased 0.4 percent in January, as the non-energy component decreased 0.7 percent, while the energy component edged up 0.1 percent.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output fell 0.5 percent in January; the index for durable manufacturing edged up 0.1 percent, while the index for nondurable manufacturing fell 1.1 percent. The index for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) moved down 0.2 percent. Among durables, the largest gains were recorded in electrical equipment, appliances, and components as well as in aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment. Computer and electronic products also moved up in January, in part based on the continued strength in semiconductor production. Nonmetallic mineral products and primary metals recorded declines of around 1 percent. Declines were widespread among nondurables, with notable weather-related decreases in the indexes of petroleum and coal products, chemicals, and plastics and rubber products.

In January, mining output fell 2.3 percent amid a weather-related pullback in oil and gas extraction and a drop in coal production. The output of utilities jumped 6.0 percent as electric and natural gas utilities output increased 4.7 and 13.9 percent, respectively.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing decreased to 76.6 percent in January, a rate that is 1.6 percentage points below its long-run average. The operating rate for mining decreased 2.3 percentage points to 92.2 percent, a rate that is 5.7 percentage points above its long-run average. The operating rate for utilities moved up 4.0 percentage points to 74.2 percent, well below its long-run average of 84.4 percent.

Note: Preliminary Estimates of Industrial Capacity

The data in this release include preliminary estimates of industrial capacity for 2024 (table 8). Measured from Q4 to Q4, total industrial capacity is projected to rise 1.7 percent this year after increasing 1.5 percent in 2023. Manufacturing capacity is also expected to move up 1.7 percent in 2024 after increasing 1.3 percent in 2023. Capacity in the mining sector is estimated to increase 0.7 percent in 2024 after declining 0.4 percent in 2023. Capacity at electric and natural gas utilities is projected to rise 3.6 percent in 2024 after expanding 3.5 percent in 2023.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the indexes of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization tentatively in the first half of 2024. The Economic Census for 2022 will not be available from the U.S. Census Bureau by early 2024, so no new annual benchmark data will be included for manufacturing. Other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels), will be incorporated. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data for manufacturing through the fourth quarter of 2023 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.

Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information, respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

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Last Update: February 15, 2024