The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters, Accessible Data

Figure 1(a). Foreign Market Entry and Exit Rates

Figure 1a plots firm entry and exit rates in foreign markets from 1993 to 2014. In 1994 the exit rate was about 35 percent and the entry rate about 37 percent. The data show a secular decline in export entry and exit, with both series reaching around 30 percent by 2014. During most of the sample entry into exporting exceeded exit from exporting, the largest exception occuring during the financial crisis of 2008-10.

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Figure 1(b). Difference in Foreign Market Entry and Exit Rates.

Figure 1b plots the difference between the entry and exit rate. Since the entry rate, as stated above, typically exceeded the exit rate, on average, net entry is positive at about 1-2 percent on average per year. However, during the financial crisis exit from exporting exceeded entry into exporting, leading to a differential of about -5 percent in 2009.

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Figure 2: Six Year Contribution Differences, 2008-2014 Minus the 1993-2006 Average

Figure 2 shows the contributions five margins of exports over the 2008-2014 period relative to those over the 1993-2006 period. The entry extensive margin illustrates the largest difference, decreasing export growth by 4.5 lppt. more than it did on average between 1993-2006. This large reduction was alleviated by an increase in the size of the typical new exporter, which added 3.9 lppt. and left the total entry margin effect at only negative 0.6 lppt. Similar behavior exists for the exit extensive and exit intensive margins, so that the exit margin’s total effect is to add 0.9 lppt. more to total export growth than the average historical contribution. Concurrently analyzing the entry and exit margins shows that the net extensive margin added 0.3 lppt. more to aggregate real export growth after the Great Recession than during 1993-2006.

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Last Update: March 06, 2020