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Figure: 10-Year Real Treasury Yields

Series: Yield from TIPS, yield using survey-based inflation expectations
Horizon: 1980:Q1 to 2015:Q3
Description: Quarterly data are plotted as two curves. Units for both curves are percent.

The yield using survey-based inflation expectations starts in 1980 at approximately 5 percent. It fluctuates throughout the 1980s, reaching peaks of just over 7 percent in 1982 and 1984 and a trough of approximately 2.5 percent in 1987. Between 1987 and 2000, the series fluctuates more slowly between approximately 3 percent and approximately 5 percent. After reaching approximately 5 percent in mid-2000, the series begins a decreasing trend and reaches a minimum of approximately -1 percent in late 2012. The series then increases slightly and ends at approximately .25 percent in 2015:Q3.

The yield from TIPS starts in 1999 at approximately 4 percent and follows a similar trajectory to the yield using survey-based inflation expectations for much of its history. The yield from TIPS decreases gradually to approximately 1.5 percent in early 2008 and then increases to approximately 3 percent in early 2009. It then decreases until its minimum of approximately -1 percent in early 2013. The series then retraces slightly and ends at approximately .5 percent in 2015:Q3.

Note: The data are quarterly. The yield using survey-based inflation expectations is the difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the survey-based measure of 10-year inflation expectations taken from the FRB/US model. TIPS is Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Barclays; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.